OBR predicts UK economy will shrink by over a third

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has warned that the UK economy could shrink by 35% this quarter due to the COVID-19 crisis.

The OBR said that the outcome was modelled on an assumption that the current lockdown would last for three months. It stated that a three-month lockdown followed by three months of partial restrictions would trigger an economic decline of 35.1% in the quarter to June alone.

The lockdown would push up the UK's borrowing bill to an estimated £273 billion this financial year, or 14% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).

However, the OBR said extra spending by the Treasury to support the economy was crucial to limit economic damage.

The OBR's estimate followed a global economic forecast published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which predicted a 3% contraction in global growth.

Rain Newton-Smith, Chief Economist at the Confederation of British Industry (CBI), said:

'This makes for bleak reading and stresses the need for the right policies to support our economy through this crisis. The need for co-ordinated global action to rebuild confidence has rarely been greater.

'The government will also need to work with businesses and many parts of civil society here at home to create a plan to revive the economy once the lockdown is lifted.'

Internet link: OBR press release

About us

We were established over 80 years ago

We continue to build on our enviable reputation for providing excellent advice and first class service to our business and personal clients alike...

Bere Mill Cows image by Henry Lawford, licensed under CC 2.0 license.

© 2024 Montpelier Professional (Galloway) Limited . All rights reserved. We use cookies on this website, you can find more information about cookies here. powered by totalSOLUTION

Newton Stewart Office : Montpelier Professional (Galloway) Limited , 1 Dashwood Square, Newton Stewart, Dumfries & Galloway DG8 6EQ
Leswalt Office : Montpelier Professional (Galloway) Limited , Challoch Inn, Leswalt, Dumfries & Galloway DG9 0LJ

VAT No 151 179 030. Registered in England and Wales No. 06025692. Registered Office: Sanderson House, Station Road, Horsforth, Leeds LS18 5NT. Montpelier Chartered Accountants is a trading name of Montpelier Professional (Galloway) Limited.

Professional Indemnity Insurers: Arch Insurance, 5th Floor, Plantation Place South, 60 Great Tower Street, London, EC3R 5AZ